The Q1 2026 figures confirm that OpenAI remains ahead in revenue against Anthropic, but underlying trends tell a different story.
A one billion gap that masks the real dynamic
OpenAI generated $5.7 billion in revenue in Q1 2026, ahead of Anthropic's $4.8 billion by about a billion, according to data published by The Information. On paper, the hierarchy seems clear. In reality, reading these quarterly figures requires immediate perspective.
A year ago, Anthropic had about $1 billion in annualized revenue while OpenAI had six billion. The balance of power has significantly tightened in twelve months, and projections for the second quarter suggest a complete reversal of the situation by the end of the year.
ChatGPT slows down user growth
The first warning sign for OpenAI is not about revenue: it's about audience. ChatGPT's weekly active user base has stabilized around 905 million, while paid subscriptions grew from 47 million to 55 million by the end of the year. Real subscriber growth, but not enough to offset the plateauing of the overall audience.
OpenAI's cost structure adds another layer of complexity. For every dollar of revenue generated, the company loses $1.22, and this calculation excludes major items like stock-based compensation. OpenAI is growing fast, but burning even faster. The company has received unprecedented funding of $122 billion from strategic partners, including Amazon and Nvidia, which gives it the means to finance this transition phase, but the question of structural profitability remains open.
Anthropic prepares for the reversal in Q2
Where OpenAI shows slowing momentum, Anthropic displays almost vertical acceleration. According to the Wall Street Journal, Anthropic is on track to more than double its Q1 revenue: the company projects $10.9 billion for Q2 2026, compared to $4.8 billion in Q1. This dynamic is accompanied by an expected operating profit of $600 million for the current quarter, which would make Anthropic a company close to operational break-even, even before a potential IPO.
The engine of this growth is clearly identified. Anthropic's strategy deliberately targets businesses rather than the general public, which explains the nature of its revenue: more predictable, more concentrated, and less dependent on individual user volumes. Over 1,000 enterprise clients now spend more than $1 million per year with Anthropic, a figure that was 500 at the announcement of Series G in February 2026, a doubling in less than two months.
Claude CodeClaude Code, the development tool publicly launched in mid-2025, plays a central role in this dynamic. It reached $1 billion in annualized revenue in just six months, and Anthropic's Model Context Protocol (MCP) surpassed 97 million installations in March 2026. These products are not features that companies test once: they are infrastructures on which they build their workflows.
The infrastructure war: the SpaceX deal that changes the scale
Beyond quarterly revenue, the battle for computing power perhaps best reveals the respective ambitions of the two companies. The financial details of a major agreement between Anthropic and SpaceX were made public on May 20, 2026, in the S-1 filing submitted by SpaceX to the SEC in preparation for its IPO.
Anthropic will pay $1.25 billion per month to xAI until May 2029, with a reduced rate during the first two months of ramp-up. The agreement covers the entire Colossus 1 data center, located near Memphis, Tennessee. The covered capacity represents 300 megawatts and over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, a considerable infrastructure for running Claude models at scale.
Dario Amodei, co-founder and CEO of Anthropic, specified the scope of the partnership in a statement released simultaneously with the S-1 filing. "We are expanding our partnership with SpaceX and will be scaling up on Nvidia GB200 capacity in Colossus 2 throughout June," he stated. (We are expanding our partnership with SpaceX, and will be scaling up Nvidia GB200 capacity in Colossus 2 throughout June.)
The deal represents approximately $15 billion per year, an amount that could nearly double SpaceX's annual revenue, estimated at $18.7 billion in 2025. For Anthropic, it's about securing scarce computing resources as demand for Claude grows in the enterprise and developer markets. Each party can terminate the contract with 90 days' notice, allowing for some flexibility in a sector where technological balances can evolve rapidly.
Two valuations vying for first place
The race for revenue is coupled with a race for valuations, with both companies preparing for major financial operations. OpenAI is reportedly preparing for a potential IPO at a valuation that could reach one trillion dollars, with a possible filing as early as the second half of 2026. Anthropic, for its part, is considering a new fundraising round at a valuation exceeding 900 billion dollars, a level that would surpass OpenAI's valuation of 852 billion dollars established in March 2026.
According to The New York Times, Anthropic's ongoing fundraising, which aims for between 30 and 50 billion dollars, is accompanied by a valuation that could reach 950 billion dollars. If these figures are confirmed, Anthropic would surpass OpenAI in valuation even before having sustainably surpassed it in quarterly revenue.
The first quarter of 2026 therefore marks less of a triumph for OpenAI than a pivotal moment in the competition between the world's two most influential AI labs. OpenAI maintains its commercial lead, but its structural costs and the plateauing of its mainstream audience raise questions that the coming quarters will need to resolve. Anthropic, on the other hand, presents an unprecedented growth trajectory at this scale, driven by solid enterprise clients and computing infrastructure that it is securing under unique conditions. The second quarter of 2026 will tell if the announced reversal is indeed happening.
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