The mobile DRAM prices explode in 2026 and the trend shows no sign of slowing down. According to TrendForce, prices could double again in the second quarter, after a first historic increase at the beginning of the year.
An unprecedented quarterly surge
The mobile memory crisis is accelerating at a speed that surprises even the most pessimistic analysts. TrendForce forecasts a price increase of LPDDR4X between 70 and 75% in one quarter in the second quarter of 2026, while LPDDR5X, the fastest memory used in high-end devices, is expected to see an increase of 78 to 83%. Other projections from the same firm go even further, with estimates reaching 93 to 98% quarterly increase.
These figures follow a first quarter that was already painful. LPDDR5X had already increased by about 60% during the first quarter of 2026. To give a concrete measure of the financial impact, the contract prices for LPDDR5 were around $10 per gigabyte at the beginning of the year. If TrendForce's projections are confirmed, manufacturers could pay nearly $20 per gigabyte by the end of the second quarter. Some are already signing long-term supply agreements for $21 per gigabyte.
AI as the main driver of the shortage
To understand this surge, we need to look at data centers and the global race for artificial intelligence. The demand from AI data centers continues to outstrip available supply, creating a structural imbalance between supply and demand in the memory market.
The mechanism is precise: HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) chips, essential for AI accelerators, consume an increasing share of DRAM production capacity. The demand for high-performance storage has far exceeded initial forecasts, driven by AI applications related to inference. In other words, every silicon wafer dedicated to HBM chips is a wafer that does not produce standard mobile memory.
The situation is exacerbated by the deliberate strategy of manufacturers. Samsung and SK Hynix, which together represent about 70% of the global DRAM market, have signaled to their investors that they do not plan to aggressively increase their production capacity. Profitability, not volume, remains the priority. In this context, the pressure on prices for mobile memory has no reason to ease in the short term.
More expensive and less equipped smartphones
Smartphone manufacturers cannot indefinitely absorb these additional costs. The repercussions are already visible in their strategic choices, and consumers are beginning to pay the price.
For Apple, whose profitability is nevertheless solid, the share of memory in the total production cost of iPhones is expected to increase significantly in the first quarter of 2026. For Android brands targeting the mid-range and entry-level segments, where memory is a determining marketing argument, the rise in costs will force them to raise the launch prices of their new models in 2026.
TrendForce had already reported in December that low-end smartphones could return to 4GB of RAM in 2026. A notable regression in a market where 8GB had become the standard for entry-level devices. Brands are looking to maintain their selling prices without absorbing the full increase in component costs, and reducing specifications is often the chosen solution.
A macroeconomic impact measured by Gartner
The scale of the crisis goes beyond a simple technical debate on specifications. Gartner estimates a cumulative increase of 130% in DRAM memory and SSD prices by the end of 2026, which should translate into a 17% increase in PC prices and a 13% increase in smartphone prices compared to 2025 levels. According to the firm, global PC shipments would decline by 10.4% and smartphone shipments by 8.4% over the entire year 2026.
This contraction in volume is directly linked to rising prices. When a device costs more, some buyers postpone their purchase or opt for a lower-end model. Gartner describes this situation as the most severe contraction in device shipments observed in over a decade.
A crisis set to last until at least 2027
The question all observers are asking is simple: when will it stop? The answer is discouraging for consumers. Memory prices are already about three times higher than at the beginning of 2025. Analysts do not anticipate any real easing before at least the end of 2027.
Price increases for DDR4, DDR5, and NAND have exceeded 200% in some segments since early 2025. The structural cause will not disappear quickly: building new semiconductor production capacity takes several years. Cleanroom construction lead times now extend over years rather than months.
Smartphone manufacturers have little room to maneuver. They can reduce specifications, increase selling prices, or both. Neither of these options is favorable to the end consumer. Those considering a purchase in the coming months would be wise to decide quickly, before the new wave of price increases in the second quarter of 2026 fully impacts retail prices.
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