The slowdown in ChatGPT downloads seriously complicates OpenAI's IPO plans, scheduled for late 2026. Figures released in late April 2026 reveal a significant slowdown in growth while competition accelerates.
A particularly difficult timing
In April 2026, OpenAI finds itself in a delicate position: preparing for one of the most anticipated IPOs in tech history, while managing a visible slowdown in its flagship product. The Wall Street Journal revealed in late April 2026 that the company missed its internal target of reaching one billion weekly active users on ChatGPT by the end of 2025, a threshold it has still not officially crossed. For investors who value OpenAI based on its growth trajectory, this signal is hard to ignore.
The scale of the problem becomes even more concrete with Sensor Tower data: in recent months, ChatGPT downloads have only increased by 14% year-over-year, while Anthropic's Claude app saw an 11-fold increase in the same period. This stark contrast illustrates a shift in dynamics in the consumer generative AI sector.
Engagement metrics in free fall
The problem is not limited to new downloads. In October 2025, monthly downloads of the ChatGPT mobile app decreased by more than 8% compared to the previous month, according to data from analytics firm Apptopia. The distinction is important: this is not a drop in the total number of installations, which remain in the millions per day, but a clear slowdown in the pace of new user acquisition.
Engagement from existing users is also deteriorating. Still according to Apptopia, the average daily time spent on the app in the United States decreased by 22.5% between July and October 2025, and the average number of daily sessions per user dropped by 20.7% over the same period. These figures suggest that even existing users are spending less time on ChatGPT. OpenAI now has only 900 million weekly active users, according to available information.
Competitive pressure is intensifying
ChatGPT's decline is partly explained by the rise of its competitors. ChatGPT's global market share in the generative AI sector has fallen from 87.2% in early 2025 to around 68% in October 2025, while Google Gemini grew from 5.4% to 18.2% in the same period. Google benefits from considerable structural advantages: its integration into Chrome, search, and Android gives it distribution that OpenAI cannot replicate in the short term.
The monthly growth in ChatGPT users illustrates this same trend. It fell from 42% at the beginning of 2025 to only 13% in September 2025. On the company's side, OpenAI has also missed several monthly revenue targets, partly due to Anthropic's progress in the enterprise customer market, according to sources close to the matter.
A weakened business model before the IPO
Beyond downloads, it is OpenAI's entire business model that is raising questions. An analysis by Deutsche Bank published in October 2025 estimated that only about 5% of the 800 million weekly active users of ChatGPT were paying subscribers. For a company preparing to go public with a target valuation of up to $1 trillion, this conversion rate represents a major structural challenge.
OpenAI also projects losses of around $14 billion. The company has nevertheless crossed impressive revenue thresholds, exceeding $25 billion in annualized revenue according to data available in early 2026, a faster progression than any other enterprise software company in history. But investing in a company that loses so much money while seeing its market share erode requires strong conviction in the long-term trajectory.
The impact on financial players linked to OpenAI has already been felt. SoftBank, which holds 13% of OpenAI's capital, saw its stock fall by 9.8% in a single session following revelations about missed targets. This stock market decline illustrates how much the markets now perceive OpenAI's IPO as a less certain bet than it seemed just a few months ago.
IPO under close scrutiny
Despite this difficult context, OpenAI is staying the course on its IPO project. According to Reuters, the company plans to file its documents with US stock market regulators in the second half of 2026, with an ambition to raise at least $60 billion. Sarah Friar, OpenAI's CFO, reportedly told her teams that the goal remains an IPO in 2027, although some advisors mention the possibility of a listing before the end of 2026.
The target valuation remains ambitious, around $700 to $800 billion according to current consensus, with an optimistic scenario of $1 trillion conditional on a recovery in growth. To achieve this, OpenAI will have to convince institutional investors that the slowdown observed in late 2025 and early 2026 is just a transition phase and not a sign of market saturation.
The next step will be decisive: if OpenAI manages to officially cross the threshold of one billion weekly active users before filing its documents, this could radically change market perception. Otherwise, the company will have to highlight its rapidly growing revenues and its prospects in the enterprise markets to justify a historic valuation in an increasingly competitive environment with Google, Anthropic, and emerging players in the sector.
No comments yet — start the discussion!